How often does the dealer bust in blackjack?

Blackjack is one of the most popular casino games in the industry. For decades, if not centuries, it has drawn players in with its simple gameplay and low house edge. It is also one of the few card games where skill matters. At its heart, however, blackjack is a game of chance between the dealer and players. There are a few things you need to keep in mind as a blackjack player, with one of the most important being ‘busting’.

If you go bust, it means that your hand exceeds 21. Both players and dealers can bust – and if it’s the latter, players are guaranteed a win. Dealers must hit if their hand is 16 or lower, which puts them in a relatively precarious position. Drawing anything above a five leads to the dealer busting their cards in blackjack. But how often can you expect dealer bust cards in blackjack?

What percentage of games end with a dealer busting?

Blackjack thrives on the competition between live players and dealers. Players typically don’t win the game unless their hand is higher than the dealer’s, in fact. Luckily, that isn’t always true. If the dealer’s hand busts, they win regardless of their hand total as long as it’s 21 or less. If you and the dealer both bust, neither of you gets anything.

How often does the dealer bust in blackjack? To determine if a dealer is going bust, pay attention to their hand. If they stand on a 17, they have a 29% chance of going bust. This means that players need only have a larger hand than the dealer 71% of the time. Some players might not see much of a difference there, but the improved odds presented by the blackjack dealer bust odds are actually incredible for them.

Who busts more, the dealer or the player?

We mentioned this briefly above, but both the blackjack dealer and player bust. Which one of them busts more often? In an optimal game, with players who know what they’re doing and without special house rules or decks, the blackjack odds of a dealer busting are higher than they are for a player busting. In fact, they are roughly double.

In the kind of optimal game we described earlier, blackjack players have a roughly 16% chance of busting. One thing to remember here is that this refers to players who understand the best blackjack odds and strategies. The likelihood is a bit higher for players who have yet to master the art of hitting vs standing. When you take more risks than you should, in other words, you increase your odds of going bust and minimise the advantage you have over the dealer. Brush up on your skills if you want to have the best chances possible of beating them.

Blackjack side bets that rely on the dealer busting

Side bets in blackjack are a popular optional wager that can dramatically increase player payouts. The blackjack dealer bust side bet is one of the most common bonus wagers in the game. Also known as the ‘buster blackjack’ bet, this bonus wager pays out anywhere from 250:1 to 2:1, depending on the number of cards in the dealer’s hand when they bust:

• Eight or more – 250:1
• Seven – 50:1
• Six – 15:1
• Five – 4:1
• Three or four – 2:1

As you can see, the blackjack dealer bust payout increases dramatically as the number of cards in the dealer’s hand increases. To maximise their chances of winning, players should pay attention to how the game is going and what cards they believe might be left in the deck. Sometimes the side bet isn’t a good one to make, so keep that in mind before wagering.

Wondering if you should add Blackjack side bets to your game? Check out our How do Blackjack Side Bets work blog and see for yourself.

What happens if the dealer and player both bust?

What happens if the dealer busts in blackjack, and the player also busts? As everyone involved loses, is there a chance of a payout? The answer here is ‘no’. Unfortunately, you don’t win anything if you and the dealer both go bust.

Blackjack ends as soon as the dealer goes bust. Because dealers play after players, players going bust will do so before the dealer. Let’s look at an example. At the start of the game, the player has a 15 and the dealer has a 12. The dealer then deals another card to players who want to hit. In this scenario, the player is dealt an eight and goes bust. The dealer then draws another card themselves, and also goes bust. The player lost before the dealer, so they get nothing.

You can think of it like this: if the dealer goes bust, it will be at the end of a round. If a player goes bust, it will be at the beginning.

How do dealer bust rates differ depending on their up card?

We discussed the overall likelihood of a dealer busting earlier in the article, but that’s not the whole story. While dealers bust in 29% of all games, individual odds depend on the cards dealt in one specific game. The dealer’s up card can offer an insight into their likelihood of busting. Dealers showing a two, for example, are 35% likely to bust. This increases to a higher 42% when a five or six is the up card and decreases to a low of 17% if the up card is an ace.

Here is a table with the dealer bust percentage for each potential up card:

Dealer Bust Percentage Table

One thing to remember here is that you shouldn’t abandon strategy just because the dealer is showing one of these cards. Nothing is guaranteed, and if you stop playing smartly because of one up card, you might lose more than you win. At the LeoVegas online casino, we want you to have the best possible experience whilst playing our games.